Better Days
w.212 | Sea Change, Non Employer Firms, How Transformers Work, LBJ, obviously the future
Dear Friends,
It’s been a tough week with ugliness on display around the world. I don’t have any answers, hot takes, or deep thoughts.
I’ve been to Israel several times, and I’ve also visited Ramallah and the West Bank. In each instance, I was with a group of leaders in startups, education, innovation, and technology and went in the spirit of building the future and solving problems. I remember those trips fondly.
I lived in Lahore in 2011 and 2012, working with the government to reform the education system. During that time, terrorists routinely bombed crowded markets and targeted schools with unspeakable acts. Despite every daily tragedy, we’d wake up early in the morning and work late into the night to build data systems, train administrators, and improve learning materials.
Violence is terrible. Terrorism is unacceptable. Politics and government are complicated. Solutions happen behind closed doors.
With that, I’m getting back to work.
Today's Contents:
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Obviously The Future
Song of the Week: Better Days
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Further Thoughts on Sea Change. Latest Memo from Howard Marks. Howard Marks has been more productive on his memos because I’m sharing one from him again - just three weeks later.
TL/DR is to expect higher interest rates for longer as we’re likely to see tougher times for corporate profits, for asset appreciation, for borrowing, and for avoiding default.
He takes a swing at the ‘optimist’s get rich’ belief of the last decade:
Equity investors have to be particularly optimistic, as they have to believe someone will come along who’ll buy their shares for more than they paid. My point here is that optimists surrender their optimism only grudgingly, and phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and self-delusion permit opinions to be held long after information to the contrary has arrived. This is among the reasons why they say of the stock market: “Things can take longer to happen than you thought they would, but then they happen faster than you thought they could.”
“Nonemployer Firms” are growing steadily and may gain even more tailwinds with AI. Not certain of the source, but cited in this tweet.
How Transformers Work. A nice visualization of how today's Large Language Models work from the Financial Times.
Obviously The Future
There are three new episodes for you of the Obivously The Future podcast.
The REAL AI Expert with Deepak Sekar. The highlight of this episode was finding out a few days after release that Arvind’s mom and Deepak’s dad were classmates at IIM Calcutta! Small world.
The New Path To Home Ownership with Catalina Kaiyoorawongs. She’s a great expert with some unique insights, like how the loan officer is the financial advisor to the average person because it’s the biggest moment when people have to consider their credit score and debt-to-income ratio, and 82% of the wealth of people’s retirement comes from their homes.
GovTech: Solving Last Mile Delivery with Saad Rizvi and Al-Hassan Hleileh. Effective delivery of public goods and services is critical during conflict and uncertainty. We need competent organizations that are nonpartisan and non-ideological. The routines and implementation that keep our system infrastructure functioning must persist. Saad and Al-Hassan are two of my dearest friends and closest colleagues whom I’ve worked with for many years in the trenches to improve government services globally.
Now it's up to you. This is my favorite question and prompt for many conversations.
Song of the Week: Better Days
This classic song is used in many tributes after natural disasters or school massacres. However, the music was initially performed for a Target store-branded Christmas album. I saw someone reference it on Twitter this week and appreciated it.
“Better Days” by Goo Good Dolls
And you ask me what I want this year
And I try to make this kind and clear
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
Cause I don't need boxes wrapped in strings
And designer love and empty things
Just a chance that maybe we'll find better days
So take these words
And sing out loud
Cause everyone is forgiven now
Cause tonight's the night the world begins again
Selfie of the Week
Last weekend, I toured the LBJ Presidential Library with two of my best friends visiting Austin from London! 'It's Texas, we get up, we do things!'
Bonus photo: Iconic view from inside.
Thanks for reading, friends. Please always be in touch.
As always,
Katelyn