Dear Friends,
What a whirlwind of a week.
My highlight was seeing a few old friends. It’s only with old friendships forged through years of transitions that you can share that deep emotional long-term struggle that transcends both personal and professional.
Keep it coming, friends.
Today's Contents:
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Future Trends: Education Technology
Weekly Song: Feel It Still
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like? Here by Mark Suster. Interesting insights:
We are in a new normal on how the market will price these companies somewhat permanently
For Upfront Ventures, across >25 years of investing in any given fund 5–8 investments will return more than 80% of all distributions, and it’s generally out of 30–40 investments. So it’s about 20% that dictate the ultimate payout.
Europe’s Energy Crisis is at a Tipping Point. Here from Goldman Sachs.
Fed Tilts Toward Third 75 Basis-Point Hike on Stubborn Inflation. Here from Bloomberg. Equity markets are being reset as interest rates are increasing meaningfully.
Figma & Adobe. Letter from the CEO of Figma here on the $20B deal - one of the largest acquisitions of a private company ever. The All-In Podcast had the best discussion here with Friedberg making the best point about Abode warding off a competitive threat and needing to have a multi-player win. And, Sacks talking about the ARR ramp.
A Podcast Curriculum for the Aspiring Buy-Sider. Tweet thread here from Brett Caughran. I love Brett’s content but would prefer these threads in blog form. :)
Bosware’s Public Launch. Here. As long as I’ve known Becker, he’s been talking my ear off about board governance and becoming an inter-planetary species. He’s finally going big with the former. The product and vision for a Board Operating System have been in the mix for awhile, but now it’s been marketed and promoted. I find there is a strong correlation between thoughtfulness and being hesitant to promote and market. I pushing all of us who care deeply and have built world leading products to “get over it and get out there.” Well-done on this step, sir.
Future Trends of Education Technology
I keynoted UPenn’s Catalyst Program event this week for 600 founders and investors. Here are my slides, and here is a video recording of the event.
If you’ve been reading DS or OTF for a while, the trends won’t surprise you. Most trends are just that: trends. Not dots. Not one-time events. They’ve been unfolding for a while and will continue to unfold for years. The key is identifying the inflection points and finding the founders who are able to guide the trend into the future.
The inflection point that happened with COVID is one of massive infrastructure investment (at least for online infrastructure in the context of education). This makes it much less reversible to the trendline as some of the e-commerce trends. EdTech adoption accelerated by three years; EdTech infrastructure accelerated by eight years. There is still a ways to go for adoption.
Other reading:
Rise of the Metaversity: 6 Predictions for the World of Ed3. Here from Tim Connors. These are a congruent extension of the ones I described before.
“The Learning Economy” was Released by a16z this week provided an interesting overview of how they see the opportunity. I would note the “once-in-a-lifetime” description of ESSER funds is something to watch as it is it floods the system with cash that is by definition not recurring.
Song of the Week: Feel It Still
Music video here.
I love this classic song. "Rebel just for kicks" implies that rebelling is no longer an act of substance but mostly for fun or performative. “Feel it still" means the feeling has not died completely. The title of the song is Feel It Still, so that might be the most important.
“Feel It Still” by Portugal. The Man.
Ooh woo, I'm a rebel just for kicks now
I been feeling it since 1966 now
Might've had your fill, but you feel it still
Ooh woo, I'm a rebel just for kicks now
Let me kick it like it's 1986 now
Might be over now, but I feel it still
Thanks for reading, friends. Please always be in touch.
As always,
Katelyn