Declarative Statements

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Smooth & Relaxing Christmas Music

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Smooth & Relaxing Christmas Music

w.178 | Sea Change, Housing, AVC Weekly Wrap Up, Skills, HBD NKR

Dec 18, 2022
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Smooth & Relaxing Christmas Music

declarativestatements.substack.com

Dear Friends,

There is a lot to cover as we near the close of 2022. In advance of those ‘end of year’ items, though, I wanted to get ahead of when everyone will have a bit of down time to offer a few suggestions:

What are you going to read (or re-read) this holiday season? I re-read Zero to One by Peter Thiel. This was my entertainment yesterday; it only took a few hours. The book was published in 2014 and continues to be foundational for all of us in the innovation economy. I find it is crucial to get back to the source material. Of course, I remember his central points, but there is nothing like a refresh to commit the details of the concepts to memory and embed them deep in one’s thought processes. I also find a nugget that strikes me differently each time. I’ll pen my more fulsome thoughts for next week’s edition.

The five best holiday movies, ranked from last year.

See you next week.

Today's Contents:

  • Good Reads: Sensible Investing

  • AVC Weekly Wrap Up: Trying Something New

  • Song of the Week: Smooth & Relaxing Christmas Music


Good Reads: Sensible Investing

Sea Change latest memo by Howard Marks.

TL/DR: The markets over the last 30 years have been driven by consistently low-interest rates. That was unsustainable and the next 30 years will likely be different with higher interest rates (or at least not lower) and higher inflation (partially because globalization was deflationary and that tailwind is going way).

“Lenders and bargain hunters fare better in this changing environment.”

The State of Pre-seed & Seed Valuations by Stonks x Forum Ventures.

Why This Housing Downturn Isn’t Like the Last One: A post-crisis mortgage-market makeover and an overhaul of the financial system make a repeat of 2008 unlikely.

Worrying About Rates Won’t Solve the Housing Crisis by Gutter Capital.

“We believe there is a historic opportunity today to invest in businesses that accelerate the development of housing in the United States.”

A List of SaaS Benchmark Reports & Potential Dangers. Self-explanatory.


AVC Weekly Wrap Up: Trying something new!

AVC Weekly Wrap Up Concept:

Eric and I have long toyed with trying our hand at a weekly broadcast. This is our first take on a ‘week in review’ discussion that we record on Friday and ship out on Saturday.

We will reflect on the ideas that caught our imagination, what we are hearing from the market, founders who see the future, and more!

As always, constructive feedback and tips & tricks on how to improve is always appreciated.

The content we referenced this week:

Skills, Skills, Skills: Now is the time. Skills matter more than ever. The most recent edition of Obviously The Future that Eric and I co-wrote. It’s been getting great reception.

Pair this with GPT-3 and Avoiding The Curse of De-Skilling, an essay I wrote in 2020. You could see the Generative AI phenomena coming years ago - remember, a considerable part of the alpha is capture pre-avalanche.

We have a backlog of these essays. We are committing to shipping faster in the coming months, so stay tuned!

New Educational Models: These are exciting new models for change. Also difficult to fit into venture capital model.

Twitter avatar for @arbesman
Samuel Arbesman @arbesman
🧑‍🎓📚 New Educational Models While universities & traditional learning models are powerful educational mechanisms, at the edges of these is the potential for new institutional forms. Here’s a list of some new attempts at complementing traditional educational institutions: 🧵 1/
Image
3:44 PM ∙ Dec 14, 2022
69Likes14Retweets

AI is My Co-Founder: An excellent time to test ChatGPT is now while it’s free.

Twitter avatar for @emollick
Ethan Mollick @emollick
AI is already incredibly useful for entrepreneurs, or potential entrepreneurs. Even with its limitations, it can do so much to reduce the frictions that founders face on their journeys, and which often discourage people from trying to launch a startup.
oneusefulthing.substack.comChatGPT is my co-founderCommon barriers hold entrepreneurs back, AI can help founders cross them
12:04 AM ∙ Dec 16, 2022
85Likes16Retweets

Reach's Generative AI in Education Essay: It’s coming for the sector. Unclear exactly what the legacy players are doing.

Twitter avatar for @tonywan
Tony Wan @tonywan
Two AIs—artificial intelligence versus academic integrity—will evolve together as kids, teachers & technologists uncover new ways to teach, learn, think and build with a new AI tools. My look at the GPT-3 & “generative” #edtech landscape. reachcapital.com/2022/12/10/gpt… #edchat #gpt3
reachcapital.comGPT and a New Generation of AI for EducationA new wave of AI will give rise to new edtech market leaders, and challenge longstanding traditions in teaching and learning.
10:42 PM ∙ Dec 10, 2022
61Likes18Retweets

David Perell on Education. Good at internet communication.

Twitter avatar for @david_perell
David Perell @david_perell
The Internet is the best thing that ever happened to education. The current system needs to change though. It's boring for students, hard on teachers, and expensive for society. If we want to improve education, here's a list of questions we need to answer:
12:40 PM ∙ Dec 13, 2022
425Likes83Retweets

Vertical Labor Marketplaces: We look at Vertical Labor Marketplace businesses often. Are they staffing agencies? Are they are marketplace? What is the difference?

Twitter avatar for @rrhoover
Ryan Hoover @rrhoover
New from @weekendfund: Open Market Maps, a collaborative project mapping emerging opportunities in tech. Our first map: Vertical Labor Marketplaces
Image
8:57 PM ∙ Dec 15, 2022
261Likes28Retweets

What VCs Think is Important vs. Founders: We at Avalanche have indexed on ‘alignment of vision,’ hence our published views on Obviously The Future. Many VCs think of investing as solely a game to be won. While there is an element of ‘winning the game’ that is important, I would find it hard to put in the work without a greater vision.


Selfie and Song of the Week: Smooth & Relaxing Christmas Music at Winter Christmas Night

Music video here.

There aren’t any lyrics this week. Sometimes it’s just better that way. Smooth and relaxing seems like the right way to go into the end of the year. Enjoy.

Selfie of the Week:

It’s cute that they put a tree made of lights on top of the space needle in December in Seattle.

Not the best picture, but you get the idea

Thanks for reading, friends. Please always be in touch.

Oh, and happiest of birthdays to my copy editor, general counsel, travel coordinator, private chef, personal trainer, life coach, procurement agent, wealth advisor, patient advocate, problem-solver, efficiency-lover, and all-around favorite person. Thank you for being the doer of all the things to an impossibly high standard.

As always,
Katelyn

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