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Smooth & Relaxing Christmas Music
w.178 | Sea Change, Housing, AVC Weekly Wrap Up, Skills, HBD NKR
There is a lot to cover as we near the close of 2022. In advance of those ‘end of year’ items, though, I wanted to get ahead of when everyone will have a bit of down time to offer a few suggestions:
What are you going to read (or re-read) this holiday season? I re-read Zero to One by Peter Thiel. This was my entertainment yesterday; it only took a few hours. The book was published in 2014 and continues to be foundational for all of us in the innovation economy. I find it is crucial to get back to the source material. Of course, I remember his central points, but there is nothing like a refresh to commit the details of the concepts to memory and embed them deep in one’s thought processes. I also find a nugget that strikes me differently each time. I’ll pen my more fulsome thoughts for next week’s edition.
The five best holiday movies, ranked from last year.
See you next week.
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
AVC Weekly Wrap Up: Trying Something New
Song of the Week: Smooth & Relaxing Christmas Music
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Sea Change latest memo by Howard Marks.
TL/DR: The markets over the last 30 years have been driven by consistently low-interest rates. That was unsustainable and the next 30 years will likely be different with higher interest rates (or at least not lower) and higher inflation (partially because globalization was deflationary and that tailwind is going way).
“Lenders and bargain hunters fare better in this changing environment.”
The State of Pre-seed & Seed Valuations by Stonks x Forum Ventures.
Why This Housing Downturn Isn’t Like the Last One: A post-crisis mortgage-market makeover and an overhaul of the financial system make a repeat of 2008 unlikely.
Worrying About Rates Won’t Solve the Housing Crisis by Gutter Capital.
“We believe there is a historic opportunity today to invest in businesses that accelerate the development of housing in the United States.”
A List of SaaS Benchmark Reports & Potential Dangers. Self-explanatory.
AVC Weekly Wrap Up: Trying something new!
AVC Weekly Wrap Up Concept:
Eric and I have long toyed with trying our hand at a weekly broadcast. This is our first take on a ‘week in review’ discussion that we record on Friday and ship out on Saturday.
We will reflect on the ideas that caught our imagination, what we are hearing from the market, founders who see the future, and more!
As always, constructive feedback and tips & tricks on how to improve is always appreciated.
The content we referenced this week:
Skills, Skills, Skills: Now is the time. Skills matter more than ever. The most recent edition of Obviously The Future that Eric and I co-wrote. It’s been getting great reception.
Pair this with GPT-3 and Avoiding The Curse of De-Skilling, an essay I wrote in 2020. You could see the Generative AI phenomena coming years ago - remember, a considerable part of the alpha is capture pre-avalanche.
We have a backlog of these essays. We are committing to shipping faster in the coming months, so stay tuned!
New Educational Models: These are exciting new models for change. Also difficult to fit into venture capital model.
AI is My Co-Founder: An excellent time to test ChatGPT is now while it’s free.
Reach's Generative AI in Education Essay: It’s coming for the sector. Unclear exactly what the legacy players are doing.
David Perell on Education. Good at internet communication.
Vertical Labor Marketplaces: We look at Vertical Labor Marketplace businesses often. Are they staffing agencies? Are they are marketplace? What is the difference?
What VCs Think is Important vs. Founders: We at Avalanche have indexed on ‘alignment of vision,’ hence our published views on Obviously The Future. Many VCs think of investing as solely a game to be won. While there is an element of ‘winning the game’ that is important, I would find it hard to put in the work without a greater vision.
Selfie and Song of the Week: Smooth & Relaxing Christmas Music at Winter Christmas Night
Music video here.
There aren’t any lyrics this week. Sometimes it’s just better that way. Smooth and relaxing seems like the right way to go into the end of the year. Enjoy.
Selfie of the Week:
It’s cute that they put a tree made of lights on top of the space needle in December in Seattle.
Thanks for reading, friends. Please always be in touch.
Oh, and happiest of birthdays to my copy editor, general counsel, travel coordinator, private chef, personal trainer, life coach, procurement agent, wealth advisor, patient advocate, problem-solver, efficiency-lover, and all-around favorite person. Thank you for being the doer of all the things to an impossibly high standard.