Train Song
w.192 | GPT and Labor, Mental Health Marketplaces, Block, Information Bias.
Dear Friends,
I started Sunday with so much that I wanted to write and ended up with figments of different thoughts spread across other pieces - so nothing original was completed this weekend. Yet I found myself with plenty of Good Reads for the section below.
There is so much to be explored with the advances in AI, the weaknesses in the banking system, the testimony of TikTok, and such. I’ll leave it to others. And, by next week, we’ll be in April, which will be great.
Today's Contents:
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Song of the Week: Train Song
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models. Full research study in PDF. In short: should you be worried about your job? If you are entry-level or lower-level in the knowledge economy, the next couple of years are going to be transitional, at the very least.
Our findings indicate that approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs, while around 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted.
The Real Competition is the Water.
“Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed. Every morning in Africa, a lion wakes up. It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a lion or a gazelle. When the sun comes up, you’d better be running.”
Two important concepts for businesses that come from this:
Speed: How soon do you have to face reality?
Severity: What is the cost of ignoring it?
a16z Marketplace 100 2023 edition was published this week, and it is always worth a browse.
"If we were to break it out as its own category, mental health would take the crown in terms of year-over-year GMV growth."
Block: How Inflated User Metrics and “Frictionless” Fraud Facilitation Enabled Insiders To Cash Out Over $1 Billion. The Hindenburg Research Report was released this week. I haven’t digested it, but I value primary research and people who act with conviction, so I present this here.
Is More Information Key to Understanding? No, says an old study.
While we may think that being better informed about a topic leads to better decision-making, in reality, additional information can lead to confirmation bias. Without realizing it, we seek to prove ourselves right.
I find that I often have the opposite problem. More information leads to more indecision because of information and data conflict. You can lose the big picture of ‘What really matters here?’ ‘What risk am I taking?’ ‘What do I have to believe?’
Song of the Week: Train Song
Here on YouTube.
My favorite way to discover music is to hijack the good taste of professional pickers. This song was released in 1966, and it’s beautiful. It’s also the intro credit song to the smartest, driest-humored television series around: Patriot.
There are so many terrible shows that have been made in recent years - too many celebrities (Knives Out), exaggerated punch lines (The Menu), and plotless and tired franchises (Seasons 3 of The Mandalorian, I am sad to say). Patriot stands out for its original writing, strong acting, and witty humor. The plot goes like this: to prevent Iran from going nuclear, intelligence officer John Tavner must forgo all safety nets and assume a perilous "non-official cover" - that of a mid-level employee at a Midwestern industrial piping firm. Since everything about it is thoughtful, whoever picked the songs for the opening credits has excellent taste and found this gem.
“Train Song” by Vashti Bunyan
It's so many miles and so long since I've met you
Don't even know what I'll find when I get to you
But suddenly now I know where I belong
It's many hundred miles and it won't be long
Selfie of the Week
The picture is from the California Coastal Trail near Half Moon Bay with one of my intellectual chat buddies. Charlie graduated a year ahead of me at Duke. He’s one of many people I was on campus with but never really knew and became close friends with after. A walk and talk on a beautiful sunny day doesn’t get much better!
Thanks for reading, friends. Please always be in touch.
As always,
Katelyn