Way Down In The Hole
w.208 | Mark's Memo, Evolution of Trust, Unionized Company Performance, Public Debt
Dear Friends,
This is the four-year anniversary of Declarative Statements. I started writing this newsletter while reading and following The Artists Way. Pressing send the first time was challenging. Everyone experiences self-doubt at that moment, but you have to get it done. And it does get easier over time.
If your name is Todd, Rachel, Neil, or Tim, you were on the first email distribution. Josh, Rush, Jay, Michael, Bianca, Andrey, Gregg, Arvind, and Elliott were added later the following week. Half of those names are friends I’ve known for almost 20 years, which feels like a crazy thing to write, considering I’m not yet forty.
Thank you all for reading. Now, let’s continue with the show.
Today's Contents:
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Building In Public
Song of the Week: Way Down In The Hole
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Taking the Temperature. A Howard Mark’s Memo. While mostly a review of his old writing, it is nonetheless worth a browse.
Short Selling Just Hit $1 Trillion. But it’s a losing strategy this year, as last year’s big winners have turned into 2023’s big losers.
The Evolution Of Trust. An interactive game about Prisoners’ Dilemma. Worth the time and effort.
Non-Unionized Companies Have Better Margins and Performance (in the same industry) than unionized ones. Results over time appear to speak for themselves:
“Market value and earnings are estimated to be about 10%-15% lower in an average unionized company than in a non-union company, following extensive control for firm and industry characteristics.” Here.
“The ROI for unions decreased because the market was providing this power to employees, whereas before it was unions that [provided] this power to employees," Here.
“The average effect of a union win at a workplace is to decrease the market value of the affected business by at least $40,500 (in 1998 $s) per worker eligible to vote, based on monthly stock prices for 24 months before and after a vote to unionize.” Here.
An Illustrative Chart of a Company Going to Zero:
A Twitter Thread of the US Public Debt.
US government spending "unexpectedly" soared 15% to $646 billion in June. More importantly, interest payments on US debt are set to hit $1 trillion per year. Hopefully we can all have a more intentional conversation on government outflows in the year to come, even if at odds with the typical dialogue during an election cycle.
Building in Public - sparking creative expression
I talked with
about how he was feeling nervous about the Digital Storytelling Camp he is putting on for middle schoolers in North Carolina next week.He is now video blogging his reflections daily on teaching the curriculum for the first time on YouTube (see below - Diaries of a Mortal Entrepreneur).
Arvind taking this small step (or giant leap) could not come at a better time. Learning for children is in crisis. A National Achievement Exam was released this week showing the relative performance of students in math.
We need more intelligent, thoughtful people like Arvind, who put tremendous pressure on themselves to deliver a high-quality learning experience to ‘spark creative expression’ in our next generation. Follow along if this is of interest.
Song of the Week: Way Down In The Hole
Video on YouTube.
Tom Waits wrote this song originally, but The Blind Boys of Alabama rendition is my favorite. The song is best known for being played as the opening credits for The Wire. A different version is played each season. Blind Boys is Season One.
It’s a gospel song about a character who went out to find fame and fortune and a ‘berserk evangelist’ is trying to bring him to God.
The Wire is the best television series ever made, and the song is iconic. In the words of the author, the show is "really about the American city, and about how we live together. It's about how institutions have an effect on individuals. Whether one is a cop, a longshoreman, a drug dealer, a politician, a judge or a lawyer, all are ultimately compromised and must contend with whatever institution to which they are committed.”
“Way Down In The Hole” by The Blind Boys of Alabama
When you walk through the garden
You gotta watch your back
Well, I beg your pardon
Walk the straight and narrow track
If you walk with Jesus
He's gonna save your soul
You gotta keep the devil
Way down in the holee
Selfie of the Week
Obviously, this isn’t much of a selfie. The perspective and framing are nice, probably because my father, a part-time professional photographer, took the picture. My parents have been on a holiday around Washington State, and the weather has been unbeatable for grilling dinner with a glass of homemade gazpacho on the side.
Thanks for reading, friends. Please always be in touch.
As always,
Katelyn