You've Got A Friend
w.222 | Rabois, The Supply Times, Early Stage Valuation Trends, Credit Card Balances, Passive vs Active
Dear Friends,
Happy second week of February.
I read on Twitter that Super Bowl betting will hit a record $23.1 billion, which seems CRAZY! The only bet I will make is that the gym in downtown Austin will be empty and the best place to watch passively.
Today's Contents:
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Last Week’s Tweet on Active vs Passive Management
Song of the Week: You’ve Got A Friend
Good Reads: Sensible Investing
Lessons from Keith Rabois - a notion of all his advice.
Quarterly Report 2023 Q4 on Household Debt and Credit from The New York Fed. Mortgage originations are at a low. Look at those ZIRP period mortgages for the top FICO scores!
Also, quarterly credit card debt is at an all-time high.
The Supply Times ‘Elevating business acumen with the latest on supply management and the Future of Work’ is one of my favorite newsletters. It is super comprehensive, has great graphics, and is thoughtfully constructed.
I liked this part about 'the ‘great betrayal’ that knowledge & technology workers are feeling about their employers who have been treating them like indispensable family the last couple of years.
And the nature of returning to the office, which I suspect more than a few readers can relate to:
15 Funds That Have Destroyed the Most Wealth Over the Past Decade. These funds lost value for investors even during a generally bullish market. Only two ARK funds!
2023 US Venture Capital Valuations - Data from PitchBook. The chart most relevant to me is below. Much money is floating in the ecosystem (and waiting to be called after commitments in ‘21 and ‘22). Given below, it’s unclear whether most investors are adequately compensated for the risk given the correction that we have seen in the remainder of venture-backed market.
**Update** Many people clicked on this link from last week that I mistyped. Sorry about that. Here is the correct link and the charts below. The key messages here are:
1.) Ignore the noise, don’t fall prey to marketing.
2.) Pay attention to costs and fees.
3.) No one can predict the future.
Indexing vs. Investing: Good reminder on Twitter about very online active managers:
These charts are crazy. $1,000,000 invested in funds led by Cathie Woods & Bill Ackman versus just putting into an S&P500 index fund over the last 8 years. No clue why anyone would trust these funds versus just betting on the market.
Song of the Week: You’ve Got A Friend
Video of James Taylor singing with Carole King on piano on YouTube.
Carole wrote "You've Got a Friend" in response to this lyric in James's song Fire and Rain: “I've seen lonely times when I could not find a friend.”
There have been many articles and research recently about how America is facing a 'fringe friend' crisis. Yes, more friends would be better. But part of the problem is the number of fake or fair-weather friends you accumulate in the professional world. People size you up for your worth and pursue a relationship as a stepping stone for a transaction or future call option. That makes real friends even more valuable because they are rare.
“You’ve Got a Friend” by Carole King.
You just call out my name
And you know wherever I am
I'll come running
To see you again
Winter, spring, summer, or fall
All you have to do is call
And I'll be there
You've got a friend
Selfie of the Week
My dear college friend, Albert, came to visit Austin this weekend. Albert was one of the smartest, kindest, friendliest people on campus. He’s on a ‘tap in’ tour to check in on friends. I love the concept!
Albert lives in D.C. but grew up in Houston and was in desperate need of top-tier Texas BBQ, so I brought him to Terry Black’s.
Thanks for reading, friends. Please always be in touch.
As always,
Katelyn